Quant-o-rama

Market Science, Psychology, and Psychosis

Monday, May 5, 2008

Learning from our mistakes? Flies can do it.

Lots of Animals Learn, but Smarter Isn’t Better

It takes just 15 generations under these conditions for the flies to become genetically programmed to learn better. At the beginning of the experiment, the flies take many hours to learn the difference between the normal and quinine-spiked jellies. The fast-learning strain of flies needs less than an hour.

This guy Allan Snyder, sticks a magnet up to a persons head and turns them into savants, for real.

In addition to co inventing a wearable computer to predict where a roulette ball will land with an accuracy good enough to turn $1 into $1.44, way back in the 70s no less, Doyne Farmer has also done a ton of research on the markets. Also see: The Predictors: How a Band of Maverick Physicists Used Chaos Theory

Investors’ mood is not key, but consumer psychology is

The Mind of Chinese Men: the Anxiety of Disorientation

Filed in Great Speculations, Quantorama, Statistics for Stock Stooges and Other Market Math, Tools of the Trade, Truth Trader | | Comments Off

Bernanke Presentation and other Fed Stuff

Monday, May 5, 2008

Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures

Conclusion

The realtor’s mantra is “location, location, location,” and, as I have discussed this evening, local variation in housing and mortgage markets is considerable. This variation is useful for understanding the sources of the increase in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures, and it should be taken into account as servicers and policymakers consider how best to avoid preventable foreclosures.

Most Americans are paying their mortgages on time and are not at risk of foreclosure. But high rates of delinquency and foreclosure can have substantial spillover effects on the housing market, the financial markets, and the broader economy. Therefore, doing what we can to avoid preventable foreclosures is not just in the interest of lenders and borrowers. It’s in everybody’s interest.

The April 2008 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

The Legacy of Bailouts

Republicans Zero In on Fed’s Role in Commodity Inflation

5 Reasons Why the Fed Is Done—or Should Be

Filed in Econorama, Fed Flap, Quantorama | | Comments Off

George Soros as God

Saturday, May 3, 2008

The more George Soros talks, the less people care what he thinks.

Filed in Econorama, Great Speculations, Mark Mahorney, Market Mayhem, Quantorama, Stockblog, Truth Trader, market blog, marketblog | | Comments Off

Trader Testosterone Study

Saturday, May 3, 2008

The actual study is locked up in the vaults of academia, but here’s a few links.

Testosterone Levels Predict City Traders’ Profitability – Science Daily

Stock Market Winners Get Big Payoff–In Testosterone – Scientific American

Study: Testosterone Fuels Stock-Market Success – Fox News

Since few reporters and bloggers have actually been able to read this study insted relying upon the work of others, it’s not entirely clear what the results of the study are. The publicly published paraphrasing I’ve read only makes it clear that there may be some link between hormones and the decisions of traders. But it appears to be a tail chaser, with increased hormone levels impacting trading tactics and vice versa trading tactics and market conditions impacting hormone levels.

Risk

Related articles:

Testosterone May Improve Mental Function – Science Daily

Trader says his boss made him take female hormones – BloggingStocks

VIDEO: Your Brain on Stress – LiveScience

Mere Thought of Money Makes People Selfish – LiveScience

Hormones affect men’s sense of fairplay – NewScientist

Money game reveals our inner Robin Hood – New Scientist

Victory turns mice into men – New Scientist (explains Rockies post-season winning streak)